What they are
Next to a player's standard line, PrizePicks sometimes posts alternates. A Goblin (green) is a lower line, so it's easier to clear. A Demon (red) is a higher line, so it's harder. Say a receiver's standard line is 64.5 yards: a Goblin might sit at 49.5 and a Demon at 84.5. Both are More only; to take Less you use the standard line.
What they do to your payout
A lineup with Goblins pays less than the standard table, and one with Demons pays more. PrizePicks doesn't publish a formula: it prices each lineup from the lines in it and shows the multiplier before you submit. Two lineups with the same number of Goblins can pay different amounts, so read the number in the app every time.
How to tell if one is worth it
Turn the multiplier into the hit rate it needs. On an all-or-nothing lineup, each pick has to clear the break-even rate below for the entry to pay its way over time. A standard 3-pick Power at 6x needs 55.0% a pick.
| 3-pick Power at | Each pick needs |
|---|---|
| 2x | 79.4% |
| 3x | 69.3% |
| 4x | 63.0% |
| 6x (standard) | 55.0% |
| 10x | 46.4% |
| 15x | 40.5% |
Then compare it with how often the player actually clears that line. A Goblin that drops the lineup to 3x needs 69.3% a pick: worth it only if each Goblin hits more often than that. A Demon lineup at 15x needs 40.5%: worth it if your Demons hit at least that often, which on a much higher line is a big ask.
Where to find the hit rate
Every SZN Lab prop card lists the player's Goblin and Demon lines next to the standard one, with his games this season and his last 20 as bars, each with its number. Count how many of them clear the Goblin or Demon line before you take it. The payout calculator takes the multipliers your app shows and works out the break-even rate for your exact lineup, Flex tiers included.
A few things that catch people out
- An easier line isn't free. A lineup of three Goblins can pay so little that it needs a higher hit rate than the standard lines would.
- Demons look cheap to dream on, but a high line is high for a reason: check how often he has reached it, not his best game.
- When a pick in a Goblin or Demon lineup voids, PrizePicks reprices the rest. Check the new multiplier in your entry.
PrizePicks can change how Goblins and Demons work and they differ by state. The app's multiplier before you submit is the one that counts.